Steven Novella's 24 lectures describe in great detail the ways our own brain can trick us into making incorrect assumptions about the world. For example are wired to give more weight to personal anecdotes than scientific studies.
He also advocates not strongly weighting the results of one scientific study but waiting for other confirmatory results. If the results of the study are confirmed and are valid the additional studies will use the original findings as a launching point to advance knowledge. As in the case of psi research the opposite is true. Studies have not built on each other. The research has not moved forward and people engage in creative pleading as to why no effect is observed.
According to Dr. Novella, most people are unaware of the clumpiness of random data. If we cherry pick samples of data there will appear to be an effect. People can test this by checking on long runs of heads or tails when flipping a coin. Eventually over 1000 flips the heads and tails will average out but during the course of this flipping exercise there will be runs sometimes exceeding 10 in a row of heads or tails.
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The term, Pareidolia, is the tendency to ascribe meaning to random bits of primarily visual or auditory information. Because our brains are very good at face recognition we often convert random visual stimuli into a human face. We can see a face in the clouds or on stains in tapestry.
This series of lectures provides helpful tools for scientists and the general public trying to make sense of the vast amount of information begging for our attention. Dr. Novella strongly advocates critical thinking and approves the efforts of Professor Richard Muller (NY Times: Climate change skeptic) to conduct a fresh analysis of the data on climate change. Professor Muller had legitimate concerns about the earth surface temperature data and the techniques used to analyze it. After excluding unreliable temperature data reporting areas, urban heat zone and using nearly 100% of rural reporting stations he concluded that the observed 2.5 degree Fahrenheit rise in temperature over the last 250 years was best fit to a similar increase in known greenhouse gas emissions. The periodic dips in temperature best fit to large volcanic eruptions. Professor Muller pointed out that this did not conclusively prove causality but he challenged others to find another cause for the observed temperature change that matched the data.
For further information please consult Steven Novella's Skeptic blog.
The guide book to the lecture is available here: Your Deceptive Mind - pdf
Preview of Your Deceptive mind - 2 minutes
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