The Little Blue Thinking Book by Brandon Royal

Brandon Royal's The Little Blue Thinking Book: 50 Powerful Principles for Clear and Effective Thinking provides information and exercises to help individuals make better decisions through careful analysis of the available evidence.

Of particular help was an extended exercise identifying the best arguments to either attack or support a claim.  The drawbacks to each of the less preferred options are covered including the reasoning for the best argument.

He also covers techniques for lateral and creative thinking. 

Introduction to logical thinking - 7 minutes

The Little Book of Common Sense Investing by John C. Bogle

John C. Bogle writes a straightforward book,  The Little Book of Common Sense Investing: The Only Way to Guarantee Your Fair Share of Stock Market Returns arguing that low cost index fund typically outperform over 80% of other mutual funds when including the management costs of the actively managed funds.

He argues that attempting to beat the market is a loser's game.  You may win for a while but in the long term it is extremely difficult to beat the market.  Given that the knowledge of one person or a small group of managers is less than the sum of knowledge in the broader market it makes sense that a portfolio managed by one person may do well for a while simply by the laws of probability but will likely return to normal as it is unlikely to keep flipping up heads each financial quarter over 30 years.

His logic follows that of Nassim Talib in Fooled by Randomness and the wisdom of the common knowledge noted in Intellectuals and Society by Thomas Sowell.  It is not possible for one person to have at most 1% of the available knowledge.  It is also very probable that someone could through random chance look very wise after 5 years of investing but not so good 10 years out.

Excerpt from the book - 5 min. 

Shut Up, Stop Whining & Get a Life by Larry Winget

Larry Winget offers his brand of tough love in his book,Shut Up, Stop Whining, and Get a Life: A Kick-Butt Approach to a Better Life.  A kinder way to express his title would be listen, don't complain and take responsibility for your life. Talk less and listen more you will likely learn something.  Avoid being a dark cloud of despair that brings others around you down.  We are responsible for the choices we make and how we respond to events that occur in our life.

Larry tackles religion and health.  Choose a religion that causes you to treat others with kindness and love. Avoid religions that are exclusive and claim to have the one and only truth.  Health: Love yourself and others by choosing behaviors that lengthen rather than shorten life.   

Larry offers up some startling statistics with respect to reading. Fewer Americans are reading books than ever before creating a nation of people who are ignorant and often stupid. He advising associating with people who read and avoiding those who don't.  I've included stats from the Pew research as reported in the Atlantic Monthly.  Larry suggests buying books if you can afford them and reading several books at a time then summarizing them when you finish.  I agree with this completely and it's part of the reason I write this blog to help refresh my memory about the books I have read.  The other reason is to give other people a chance to learn something new and experience the joy of discovery.  

http://www.pewinternet.org/files/old-media//Files/Reports/2014/PIP_E-reading_011614.pdf

 Pew Research

Atlantic: The decline of the American Book Lover - Jan. 2014

Larry Winget's 2012 Graduation speech delivered on Fox News - 3 min. 

The Violinist Thumb by Sam Kean

Sam Kean's book, The Violinist's Thumb: And Other Lost Tales of Love, War, and Genius, as Written by Our Genetic Code covers the lives of the scientists that discovered the field of genetics and the DNA that makes it possible.

In the section about the effects of radiation exposure on genetic material and health. Sam relays the story of a Japanese man who had the misfortune of being present at precisely the wrong time in Hiroshima and Nagasaki Japan during late summer in 1945 suffering exposure to both the atomic bomb and the Hydrogen Bomb. Fortunately exposure to high levels of radiation for a short time while carcinogenic does not appear to mutagenic as the children of the survivors can attest.

We meet Gregor Mendel in all of his messy glory. We also get to know a nun wearing a cobra habit working out of a laboratory in a converted bathroom who develops techniques that help determine the structure of DNA.

I was surprised to learn that retroviruses may have shaped up to five percent of the human genome.  Other helpful hints in the book, If you are stuck in the Arctic and short on food, do not eat polar bear liver.  It contains toxic levels of vitamin A. 

Radio interview with Sam Kean - 10 minutes

Carrots and Sticks by Ian Ayres

Incentives vs. losses, which one will be better at motivating a person to get something done or keep doing what they are doing.  The book, Carrots and Sticks: Unlock the Power of Incentives to Get Things Done, offers strategies for how to set a goal and achieve it.

Using the carrot and stick method it is possible to have sustained weight loss through a two step process.  The first goal covers the initial gradual weight loss.  It should be no more than 10% of body weight for optimum success.   The second contract covers maintaining that weight within five pounds for the next two years.  This is the average amount of time it takes for the body to normalize the new weight. This is the Yo Yo diet prevention strategy. 

Helpful tools include frequent weighing, at the beginning of the day after going to the bathroom wearing the same type of clothes at least once a week.  If the weight moves above the 5 pound buffer it's time to break out the emergency kit containing a couple protein shakes, a coupon to the gym, a call to a friend for support or a call to a tough love person.

Ian describes the way U of MN professor,  B.F. Skinner trained pigeons to bowl during WWII using incremental incentives.   They tried offering a reward to a pigeon for bowling and nothing happened.  They then rewarded incremental improvements in the pigeon's behavior and rapidly taught the pigeon to bowl in a very short time. Humans respond in a similar manner.

The author's online website StickK allows individuals to set up legally binding commitment contracts as a way of ensuring that a goal will be achieved. Typically a person will commit to donating money to a charity that they do not support if they fail.  The site also allows designating a referee and supporters to make sure you follow through.  These contracts can also be used to test the sincerity of a person who may be at risk for not following through on a commitment.

The author provides a helpful discussion about when to use carrots and sticks and how to properly frame a loss as a carrot to reduce resistance.  Unsuccessful stick approach - Take part in the wellness program or pay $500.  Successful carrot approach - You can reduce your health cost by $500 by taking part in the wellness program.  

StickK - Gadgets for Girls - 1 min.

Ian Ayres - 15 min.

 BF Skinner research - 15 minutes